A year on and back by popular demand, Andrea Boltho, Emeritus Fellow of Magdalen College, Oxford, and Director of Oxford Economics took us through his economic recovery predictions.
At the time of last year’s seminar, it was expected that world growth would recover following the severe recession induced by Covid-19. This expectation has been fulfilled. The United States and China, in particular, are now growing strongly and Western Europe is picking up speed. Widespread and increasingly successful vaccination campaigns should prevent renewed waves of infection, though the risk of novel and more virulent Covid variants cannot be fully discounted. The major economic uncertainty surrounding the short- to medium-run future is the possibility of a revival of inflation. Hopefully, the present uptick in consumer prices reflects mainly temporary factors. Should bottlenecks and shortages, however, become more widespread, there is a risk that wage inflation could follow, leading, in turn, to tighter monetary policies. Even in this case, however, growth in 2022-23 would remain positive, if not as buoyant as it is today.
Andrea Boltho was educated in Italy and at the Universities of London (LSE), Paris and Oxford. From 1966 to 1977 he was at the OECD’s Department of Economics and Statistics. In 1973-74 he was a Japan Foundation Fellow at the Research Institute of the Economic Planning Agency, Tokyo. From 1977 to 2007, he was a Fellow and Tutor in Economics at Magdalen College, University of Oxford. Since 2008 an Emeritus Fellow.
At various stages he was consultant to the World Bank, the OECD and member of the Academic Council of the IFO Institute, Munich, as well as Visiting Professor in various European universities. Has been a Member of the Board of Finmeccanica and is a Director of Oxford Economics.